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Tuesday, March 19, 2024

Last Saturday night, the League of Alternative Baseball Reality – LABR convened for its 23rd auction draft. Hosted by USA Today and run by Steve Gardner, the conclave of writers and analysts serves as one of the first and most visible barometers of redraft auctions for AL and NL players.

I had two plans, although Plan A, buying Mike Trout for $40 or less, was not very likely. These auction tend to be very oversold early on the better players. So I quickly reverted to Plan B after Trout, the fifth player nominated, went for $45. That would be a severe spread the risk approach. I allotted $90 for my nine pitchers - $20 (always a +/- target) for the first three, two starters and one of the better closers, then $10 each for two more pitchers, either a SP and a lesser closer or two starters, and then ten dollars for the last four pitchers.

On the hitting side, I could get seven Tier 2 or 3 hitters around 20 dollars each and then fill out the other seven hitters for the remaining 30 dollars.

So how did that work out? Well, first here are the players I bought, with auction price in parenthesis, and my quick thoughts on their fantasy prospects for this season.

C – Jason Castro (14) - Finally got a full season of at-bats last year and hit 18 homers while batting .275.

C – Dioner Navarro (7) - I think he will hit 15-20 HR in Toronto’s launching pad and will have a positive batting average.

1B – Mark Teixeira (16) – Only time will tell how far he will come back, but 30+ HR is very likely.

3B – David Freese (12) – Even with mid teen HR output, he could have 80-90 RBI in Angels' lineup.

CI – James Loney (10) – Not exciting but solid double-digit homers with a good average.

2B – Jed Lowrie (15) – 2B/SS eligibility with 15+ HR.

SS – Asdrubal Cabrera (15) – Only danger to nice bounce back would be early arrival of Francisco Lindor and no trade.

MI – Ryan Goins (2) – Blue Jays starting 2B should have 6-8 HR and SB and 40-50 R/RBI.

OF – Norichika Aoki (19) – Could easily score 100+ runs leading off for Royals.

OF – Carlos Beltran (24) – I think he will hit 30+ in Yankee Stadium.

OF – Avisail Garcia (15) – Looking for breakout in first full season – 15-20 HR likely.

OF – Adam Eaton (17) – Eaton was off to a good start last year before the injury, and leading off for the White Sox every day, he should steal 20+ and score 80+ runs. Also has a little pop.

OF – David DeJesus (2) – A full season could mean 10-10 contributions with decent average.

UT – Anthony Gose (2) – Only non-starter in the lineup but could steal enough bases to make a solid contribution.

 

SP – Jered Weaver (18)

SP – Anibal Sanchez (21)

SP – Jose Quintana (10)

SP – Ricky Nolasco (4)

SP – Hector Santiago (7)

SP - Dylan Bundy (1)

CL – David Robertson (19)

CL – Josh Fields (8)

RP – Luke Gregerson (2)

Reserves – Yangervis Solarte (2B), Bruce Chen (SP), Eduardo Nunez (SS), Matt Lindstrom (RP), Jose Alvarez (SP), Chris Parmelee (1B/OF)

So the roster doesn’t look sexy – it is a red chip team. BUT 13 of 14 hitters are starters. Winning at-bats has long been the principal aim of the “spread the risk” auction strategy. Look at the scrubs on some of the other rosters who will not get anywhere near the at-bats thus chances for Runs or RBI that regular players - even lesser hitters will accumulate.

Only Gose is a projected part-time player for Toronto. Now that could change in two ways. Gose has an option left and Moises Sierra does not, so the Blue Jays could send him down to start the season. On the other hand, neither Melky Cabrera nor Jose Bautista is a picture of health, so there could certainly be more at-bats if Gose is the fourth outfielder on the roster, which he is right now.

But I did address that (as well as MI insurance) with Yangervis Solarte and Eduardo Nunez in the reserve rounds. The Yankees are saying that Nunez will play some third base (more if the Kelly Johnson experiment fails or if Johnson has to play at second base). In addition, the best hitter and most versatile defender so far in spring training for the Yankees has been Yangervis Solarte, a second baseman by minor league stats but who can play third base and has already played in the outfield.

One other thing to consider is the LABR rules for lineups and reserve players. You cannot just bench one of your auction bought starters and sub in a reserve. If a “regular” is not on the DL or sent to the Minors, you would have to drop them to activate a reserve. Reserve players, however, can be moved up and down each week. So two reserve players could effectively rotate based on matchups, and that is one of the reasons I made sure to draft a starting pitcher and a playable reliever in Bruce Chen and Matt Lindstrom. I can put one in the lineup for Dylan Bundy and then flip them back and forth each week – for home starts and matchups for Chen or if Lindstrom is getting save opportunities for the White Sox.

Several other owners did this but some did not. Also having reserve players that are playable is very helpful in trades where it is a way to upgrade another team’s active lineup (or give them the lineup flexibility).

None of that information means I am perfectly happy with my draft. While I was fine with a spread the risk strategy and looking at the AL hitters in tiers thought I could field a competitive team from the less expensive players, I did make one key error. While I like the four outfielders I paid double-digit auction dollars for, I would have been better off to spend a few more dollars for a corner infielder where the pool thins dramatically.

But that would have to have been with a better third baseman because both the Tier 2 first basemen, Eric Hosmer and Albert Pujols, went for several dollars more than we project them to earn. And buying Hosmer, who I like this year at $28, or Pujols, who is questionable for anything close to a full rebound at $29, means there is not profit even if they do better than projected.

I actually bought Freese to be my CI thinking I might be able to get a decent price for Xander Bogaerts, who we project to earn $15. Bogaerts came up two rounds later and went for $19, which prompted me to roster Beltran, who was the next player nominated and in my opinion the best power hitter left, for $24. The alternative at that point would have been to pay more for Josh Donaldson, who I have nowhere near as much confidence in for power numbers in 2014.

I do think there are several hitters who are good bets to earn more than projected value, but we shall see. I also think the pitching is good, especially if either/both Josh Fields closes for more than the first month for the Astros or Dylan Bundy is good when he enters the Orioles rotation – likely mid-season.

Fortunately, the league is not based on projections. Let’s see how the team looks six months down the road. {jcomments on}