Saturday, September 14 – 3:05 PM
Never get too high and never get too low. I think I opened a previous diary entry with these exact same words of wisdom, but it was a long time ago, and I think I was talking about fantasy baseball then, but I’m not 100 percent sure. Anyway, this really is excellent advice, and it’s actually even more important in fantasy football, which is without doubt the more emotional game, thanks in large part to the head-to-head format. You either win or you lose. There’s no such thing as an OK week during which you gained two points in homers but lost a point in ERA and another point in strikeouts. In football, your week was either great or terrible. After Week 1, this can be taken to an extreme. Forget about great week or terrible week. How about great season or terrible season? This is a dangerous time, a time when it’s very easy for emotion to overpower reason. Don’t drop a player who shouldn’t be dropped or trade away a player who shouldn’t be traded. Similarly, don’t blow out your FAAB budget on a mediocre player who just happened to have an exceptional opening game. Sure, there will always be guys who come out of nowhere to eventually earn every-week starter status, but be careful. That’s all I’m saying.
On that note, let’s jump into the time machine and travel back to Wednesday, September 12, 2012. The NFL season is one week old and the first in-season waiver claim deadline is fast approaching. After a careful examination of every Week 1 box score, here are a few things you might be thinking.
Kevin Ogletree (8 REC, 114 YDS, 2 TD vs. Giants) will be one of this year’s biggest breakthrough wide receivers.
Hey, even I added Ogletree to one of my rosters. At worst, he would make for a useful bye week replacement, right? Wrong. From Week 2 through the end of the season, Ogletree would rack up only 24 more catches for 322 yards and two scores. He’s now buried on the Buccaneers’ depth chart.
Jason Witten with only two catches for 10 yards? What’s up with that?
This was Ogletree’s night, and the normally ultra-consistent Witten was a no-show. Witten owners would have plenty to smile about by season’s end, however, as the veteran tight end finished with a personal single-season best 110 catches while surpassing the 1,000 yard receiving mark for the third time in the last four years.
Jay Cutler (21-for-35, 333 YDS, 2 TD vs. Colts) has top-10 QB potential
I don’t know if I was that optimistic, but after purchasing Cutler in one of my auctions at a bargain basement price, I was hoping that he would be an adequate every-week starter. And I was fairly convinced after this performance. Not so fast! Cutler would never again reach the 300-yard mark and threw for multiple touchdowns in just four of his remaining 14 games. Deciding on who to start between Cutler and Carson Palmer would become a weekly headache for me. And I usually made the wrong decision.
Are you kidding me? Three catches for 14 yards for Wes Welker?
Yup, it wasn’t a misprint, and I have to admit I was plenty concerned about this. If I remember correctly, following this game, there was some bickering between Welker and the Patriots’ coaching staff along with talk that the Pats were planning on lessening Welker’s role in their passing attack. 15 games, 115 catches and 1,340 yards later, all was well on the Welker front. And then he bolted to Denver over the off-season. And then he criticized the Pats some more. And then he caught nine balls for 67 yards and two touchdowns in his regular season debut for the Broncos. And little has changed. He’s still a legit No. 1 WR in PPR formats.
Trent Richardson (19 CAR, 39 YDS vs. Eagles) could be a rookie bust
Not quite. Although Richardson did have a few mediocre games, he managed to finish the season with solid overall numbers, highlighted by his 11 rushing touchdowns. His failure to reach the 1,000 yard rushing mark limited his value to a high-end RB2. But at just 22 years of age, the former 3rd overall pick is primed to take a huge step forward. And it’ll come sooner rather than later. Oh yeah, and don’t worry about last week’s 13-carry, 47-yard performance. The Dolphins run defense is supposed to be pretty good.
Mark Sanchez (19-for-27, 266 YDS, 3 TD) might be fantasy relevant
Ahh, no. Sanchez has endured enough of a beating from the local media here in New York, so I’ll just leave it at that.
Never get too high and never get too low. I think I repeated this advice in a previous diary entry, but it deserves to be repeated. Stay confident but stay humble.
But most importantly, don’t take Week 1 too seriously.
Mike Wallace will be fine.