No, I am not talking about covering ones’ behind. As a follow on to last week’s MVP analysis, in this week’s article, we will look at the Cy Young Award races from several perspectives.
First, we have the June odds for the American League and National League Cy Young Awards as seen by the oddsmakers at bovada.lv. A second view with fewer competitors named (the top ten, specifically) comes from ESPN’s handy Cy Young Award Predictor.
To sober us up a bit, the third column lists the average draft position of the Cy Young Award odds leaders. I used the March 28 ADP results from Mock Draft Central for mixed leagues.
|Odds to win the 2013 AL Cy Young||Odds||Pred||ADP|
|Clay Buchholz (BOS)||7/4||1||275|
|Yu Darvish (TEX)||4/1||7||55|
|Justin Masterson (CLE)||7/1||321|
|Matt Moore (TB)||10/1||136|
|Justin Verlander (DET)||10/1||6||21|
|Felix Hernandez (SEA)||12/1||4||44|
|Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA)||12/1||5||211|
|Max Scherzer (DET)||12/1||2||93|
|Jon Lester (BOS)||20/1||167|
|C.C. Sabathia (NYY)||20/1||94|
|Anibal Sanchez (DET)||20/1||193|
|Chris Sale (CWS)||20/1||85|
|Alex Cobb (TB)||25/1||261|
|Derek Holland (TEX)||25/1||209|
|Mariano Rivera (NYY)||25/1||103|
|Doug Fister (DET)||33/1||173|
|Hiroki Kuroda (NYY)||33/1||156|
|Joe Nathan (TEX)||33/1||10||101|
|Ervin Santana (KC)||50/1||281|
|Bud Norris (HOU)||100/1||379|
|R.A. Dickey (TOR)||250/1||83|
|Bartolo Colon (OAK)||NL||3||NR|
|Addison Reed (CWS)||NL||8||180|
|Jim Johnson (BAL)||NL||9||127|
Justin Masterson and Matt Moore would seem very bad bets. Despite being among the oddsmakers’ and bettors’ favorites, the two do not place in the top ten statistically as measured by the ESPN predictor.
At the other end of the spectrum, three of ESPN’s top ten do not even have betting lines established – Bartolo Colon, Addison Reed and Jim Johnson. Colon, who ranks third on the Cy Young Predictor, did not appear on spring ADP lists, likely due to concern about his age and health.
|Odds to win the 2013 NL Cy Young||Odds||Pred||ADP|
|Clayton Kershaw (LAD)||4/1||17|
|Patrick Corbin (ARI)||5/1||2||382|
|Adam Wainwright (STL)||5/1||1||62|
|Jordan Zimmerman (WAS)||7/1||6||113|
|Shelby Miller (STL)||15/2||3||254|
|Lance Lynn (STL)||9/1||5||223|
|Cliff Lee (PHI)||10/1||8||36|
|Matt Harvey (NYM)||12/1||201|
|Mike Minor (ATL)||12/1||4||175|
|Madison Bumgarner (SF)||15/1||67|
|Mat Latos (CIN)||18/1||118|
|Craig Kimbrel (ATL)||20/1||7||28|
|Hyun-jin Ryu (LAD)||20/1||270|
|Stephen Strasburg (WAS)||20/1||33|
|A.J. Burnett (PIT)||33/1||169|
|Jaime Garcia (STL)||33/1||327|
|Jason Grilli (PIT)||33/1||9||170|
|Tim Hudson (ATL)||50/1||168|
|Sergio Romo (SF)||100/1||115|
|Edward Mujica (STL)||NL||10||NR|
The Senior Circuit looks more like one would expect.- perhaps with the exception of Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers’ star is tops with 4/1 odds and had the best ADP of any NL hurler, yet the Cy Young Predictor reflects his bumpy first half ride.
The unexpected success of Cardinals' closer Edward Mujica (resulting from Jason Motte’s Tommy John surgery) was not anticipated by fantasy drafters and even now has not caught the oddsmakers’ attention. Yet the right-hander has squeaked into ESPN’s top ten.
Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 14-year history. Though he is the only one to remember or care, he also finished second in each of the two subsequent seasons. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.