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Thursday 27th Apr 2017

No, I am not talking about covering ones’ behind. As a follow on to last week’s MVP analysis, in this week’s article, we will look at the Cy Young Award races from several perspectives.

First, we have the June odds for the American League and National League Cy Young Awards as seen by the oddsmakers at bovada.lv. A second view with fewer competitors named (the top ten, specifically) comes from ESPN’s handy Cy Young Award Predictor.

To sober us up a bit, the third column lists the average draft position of the Cy Young Award odds leaders. I used the March 28 ADP results from Mock Draft Central for mixed leagues.

AL


June ESPN March
Odds to win the 2013 AL Cy Young Odds Pred ADP
Clay Buchholz (BOS) 7/4 1 275
Yu Darvish (TEX) 4/1 7 55
Justin Masterson (CLE) 7/1
321
Matt Moore (TB) 10/1
136
Justin Verlander (DET) 10/1 6 21
Felix Hernandez (SEA) 12/1 4 44
Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA) 12/1 5 211
Max Scherzer (DET) 12/1 2 93
Jon Lester (BOS) 20/1
167
C.C. Sabathia (NYY) 20/1
94
Anibal Sanchez (DET) 20/1
193
Chris Sale (CWS) 20/1
85
Alex Cobb (TB) 25/1
261
Derek Holland (TEX) 25/1
209
Mariano Rivera (NYY) 25/1
103
Doug Fister (DET) 33/1
173
Hiroki Kuroda (NYY) 33/1
156
Joe Nathan (TEX) 33/1 10 101
Ervin Santana (KC) 50/1
281
Bud Norris (HOU) 100/1
379
R.A. Dickey (TOR) 250/1
83
Bartolo Colon (OAK) NL 3 NR
Addison Reed (CWS) NL 8 180
Jim Johnson (BAL) NL 9 127

Justin Masterson and Matt Moore would seem very bad bets. Despite being among the oddsmakers’ and bettors’ favorites, the two do not place in the top ten statistically as measured by the ESPN predictor.

At the other end of the spectrum, three of ESPN’s top ten do not even have betting lines established – Bartolo Colon, Addison Reed and Jim Johnson. Colon, who ranks third on the Cy Young Predictor, did not appear on spring ADP lists, likely due to concern about his age and health.

NL


June ESPN March
Odds to win the 2013 NL Cy Young Odds Pred ADP
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) 4/1
17
Patrick Corbin (ARI) 5/1 2 382
Adam Wainwright (STL) 5/1 1 62
Jordan Zimmerman (WAS) 7/1 6 113
Shelby Miller (STL) 15/2 3 254
Lance Lynn (STL) 9/1 5 223
Cliff Lee (PHI) 10/1 8 36
Matt Harvey (NYM) 12/1
201
Mike Minor (ATL) 12/1 4 175
Madison Bumgarner (SF) 15/1
67
Mat Latos (CIN) 18/1
118
Craig Kimbrel (ATL) 20/1 7 28
Hyun-jin Ryu (LAD) 20/1
270
Stephen Strasburg (WAS) 20/1
33
A.J. Burnett (PIT) 33/1
169
Jaime Garcia (STL) 33/1
327
Jason Grilli (PIT) 33/1 9 170
Tim Hudson (ATL) 50/1
168
Sergio Romo (SF) 100/1
115
Edward Mujica (STL) NL 10 NR

The Senior Circuit looks more like one would expect.- perhaps with the exception of Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers’ star is tops with 4/1 odds and had the best ADP of any NL hurler, yet the Cy Young Predictor reflects his bumpy first half ride.

The unexpected success of Cardinals' closer Edward Mujica (resulting from Jason Motte’s Tommy John surgery) was not anticipated by fantasy drafters and even now has not caught the oddsmakers’ attention. Yet the right-hander has squeaked into ESPN’s top ten.

Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 14-year history. Though he is the only one to remember or care, he also finished second in each of the two subsequent seasons. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.

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