In seeing some names historically connected to excellence such as Albert Pujols, still listed despite having rough seasons, I thought it would be interesting to put alongside the average draft position of the MVP odds leaders. I used the March 28 ADP results from Mock Draft Central for mixed leagues.
|2013 AL MVP||Odds||ADP|
|Miguel Cabrera (DET)||1/1||2|
|Chris Davis (BAL)||3/1||89|
|Mike Trout (LAA)||7/1||3|
|Clay Buchholz (BOS)||10/1||275|
|Robinson Cano (NYY)||10/1||7|
|Adam Jones (BAL)||15/1||21|
|Prince Fielder (DET)||25/1||14|
|Evan Longoria (TB)||25/1||32|
|Joe Mauer (MIN)||25/1||52|
|Mike Napoli (BOS)||25/1||64|
|Adrian Beltre (TEX)||33/1||16|
|Yu Darvish (TEX)||33/1||55|
|Albert Pujols (LAA)||33/1||6|
Certainly, we already knew that Chris Davis and Clay Buchholz are exceeding most everyone’s expectations in the American League this season. Red Sox fans and Buchholz owners are holding their collective breath that the pitcher’s neck injury subsides quickly.
|2013 NL MVP||Odds||ADP|
|Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)||5/1||20|
|Carlos Gonzalez (COL)||6/1||9|
|Troy Tulowitzki (COL)||6/1||18|
|Joey Votto (CIN)||7/1||11|
|Bryce Harper (WSH)||10/1||15|
|Jean Segura (MIL)||10/1||269|
|Justin Upton (ATL)||10/1||10|
|Adrian Gonzalez (LAD)||12/1||29|
|Andrew McCutchen (PIT)||12/1||5|
|Buster Posey (SF)||14/1||12|
|Ryan Braun (MIL)||15/1||1|
|Domonic Brown (PHI)||18/1||220|
|Carlos Gomez (MIL)||18/1||183|
|Yadier Molina (STL)||18/1||39|
|Carlos Beltran (STL)||25/1||107|
|Dexter Fowler (COL)||25/1||225|
|Carl Crawford (LAD)||33/1||181|
|Starling Marte (PIT)||33/1||179|
|Pablo Sandoval (SF)||33/1||132|
|Shin-Soo Choo (CIN)||33/1||81|
|David Wright (NYM)||33/1||26|
Over in the Senior Circuit, the injury bug has become a pervasive problem. At least five of the named MVP candidates have recently encountered physical problems serious enough to be placed on the disabled list. They include Troy Tulowitzki, Bryce Harper, Ryan Braun, Carl Crawford and Pablo Sandoval.
In terms of major surprises compared to draft positions, Jean Segura and Domonic Brown are most prominent in the NL, with Segura’s 10/1 odds the same as Buchholz.
I also found it very interesting that not a single pitcher is among the top 21 NL MVP favorites while two are on the AL list.
My final view for this week is the players who were in the top-25 in ADP on March 28 but as of June are each worse than 33/1 odds to win their respective league MVP awards.
|Top 25 ADP not listed MVP
|Matt Kemp (LAD)||4|
|Jose Bautista (TOR)||8|
|Giancarlo Stanton (MIA)||13|
|Clayton Kershaw (LAD)||17|
|Jason Heyward (ATL)||19|
|Justin Verlander (DET)||21|
|Josh Hamilton (LAA)||23|
|B.J. Upton (ATL)||24|
|Edwin Encarnacion (TOR)||25|
Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 14-year history. Though he is the only one to remember or care, he also finished second in each of the two subsequent seasons. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.