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Thursday 21st Sep 2017

I recently had the honor of participating in an industry auction with a number of accomplished writers. It was a 12-team, AL-only format, and it was every bit as tough as the NFBC AL-only leagues I’ve been in. However, with the NFBC kicking things off this weekend, I don’t want to talk about my team. I want to hit you with some values that might be useful as you’re headed to the NFBC this weekend or as you’re looking to a similar AL-only draft.

Each year there are a certain number of players that we ‘saberheads’ think we can get at a relatively inexpensive price if we miss out on an upper tier player at a particular position. These are the “safety blankets,” if you will, at various positions.  Sometimes these can be traps if we’re not savvy enough to sense when everyone is going to hold out for the same “value” pick. In this draft, those players were Ernesto Frieri $15 and Lorenzo Cain $20. Both were targets and both went for a lot more than I expected. Though both picks made sense at the time, the odds are against turning a profit here.

Players that are getting no respect at all: Bartolo Colon $1, Franklin Gutierrez $2, Carlos Pena $4, Nate Mclouth $4, Mitch Moreland $4, Josh Donaldson $1.

Players you’re going to have to get out the wallet to own: Yoenis Cespedes $31, Mike Trout $40, Robinson Cano $36, Jose Reyes $34, Justin Verlander $34, David Price $30, Ben Zobrist $27, Albert Pujols $33, Miguel Cabrera $39.

Players that cost more than I expected:  Leonys Martin $14, Dustin Ackley $15, Gordon Beckham $15, Tyler Flowers $9, Lorenzo Cain $20, Ernesto Frieri $15, Salvador Perez $20.

Other players of interest: Manny Machado $15, Jed Lowrie $8, Chris Carter $12, Hiroyuki Nakajima $9, Dylan Bundy $3, Jurickson Profar $8, Mike Zunino $3, Will Myers $12, Bruce Rondon $10, Aaron Hicks $9, Trevor Bauer $5.

In the reserve rounds, the following players may be worth a flier:

Brennan Boesch – A lefty in Yankee stadium with modest pop.

Nate Freiman – He’s 6’8” and weighs 220. As a rule 5 draftee, he stands a good chance of making the active roster. He slashed .298/.370/.502 at Double-A in 2012.

Jeff Kobernus – The Tigers rule 5 pick stole 94 bases in the Minors over the last 2 years.  The Tigers lack a true burner, and with injury-prone Andy Dirks platooning in left field, a run at 20+ SB’s could be in the cards.

Chris McGuiness – Yet another rule 5 subject.  This little Indian brought the Arizona Fall League MVP trophy all the way home.

Roberto Hernandez – Tampa Bay made moves to upgrade their infield defense and if anyone can fix the sinkerballer, formerly known as Fausto, the Rays, formerly known as devlish, can.

Al Albuquerque – He’s the best reliever in Motown right now and it’s not even close. The problem is with his health issues in the past, it’s unlikely that the Tigers will push their luck by making him pitch on back-to-back days.

Comments   

0 #2 Greg Morgan 2013-03-21 11:36
Chisenhall - 10, Melky - 20, Butler - 27, Aybar - 18, Parmelee - 7. Teams spent an average of $72.7 on pitchers, $55.9 on starters or potential starters.
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0 #1 Michael July 2013-03-20 15:01
Gutierrez's injury history will always keep his price down. Moreland's is a huge surprise. I'll need to brush up on Freiman and Kobernus but I typically don't bid on rule 5 players, better off using FAAB on them, but thanks for the heads-upt. BTW, what did Chisenhall, Melky, Butler, Aybar and Parmelee go for? Did guys bid up starting pitching?
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