As in the past, KFFL has invited Mastersball to join their Baseball Analysis Draft (BAD) Expert league. The league details, rules and participants are here:
KFFL BAD distinguishes itself from other leagues by requiring participants to provide a written analysis of each pick explaining why that player was selected. The write-ups are posted by KFFL here:
I want to encourage you to take a look at the analysis and post your comments in the Sound-off area located at the bottom of the page of each draft round.
Randomized draft order gave Mastersball the 12th and last pick, that is, the last pick of the first round and the first pick of the second round. Todd and Lawr also had the 12th pick at the Fantasy Sports Trade Association (FSTA) draft. They picked Buster Posey. I picked Josh Hamilton and Jose Reyes. Are these two selections an indication that I am a traditionalist unable to think as creatively and smartly as Todd and Lawr? Before you reach any conclusions, allow me to explain the rationale behind the picks. Since most of Mastersball readers are math wizards, a formula will do the job.
We know that Josh Hamilton will not have the full 620 ABs in 2013. That’s given. How many ABs will he have? Let’s assume 500. Hence:
(Production of Josh Hamilton’s 500 ABs) + (Production of 120 ABs of my first bench OF)
Is greater > than
(Production of any other player that was still undrafted at the end of round 1)
To put it succinctly, when Josh Hamilton is on, HE IS ON.
Jose Reyes is a tad more difficult to explain because I do not draft for position scarcity. If I did, I would have selected Troy Tulowitzki here. Jose Reyes will bat at the top of a Toronto lineup that appears to be powerful this year. He will score many runs and runs are a roto category. With Jose Reyes, my team is getting a twofer: runs at a scarce position. Will the reward outweigh the risk of injury?
Please feel free to comment.