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Organized Chaos
Written by Todd Zola   
Monday, 11 February 2013 00:00

I’m going into LABR on Tuesday night. No, I’m not pregnant. Don’t you know it’s rude to ask a fat guy if he’s expecting? Tuesday night is the Mixed League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) draft, an affair featuring fifteen of the industry’s finest writers and analysts.

Last year marked the inaugural season of Mixed LABR and if the axiom is true and you only get one chance to make a first impression, I blew it big time. I am humbled and embarrassed to admit I came in dead last. I have a standing offer to return to the annual AL and NL LABR auctions, but I told Steve Gardner of USA Today, Grand Poobah of LABR, that I felt I had some unfinished business and wanted another crack at the Mixed guys and he kindly obliged.

Our draft spot was announced last week and I’m picking out of the six-hole, so I thought I’d discuss where I’m at with the pick and open the floor up to any suggestions. I realize this pick is not going to make or break my draft, but it’s a little tough to throw out some names of guys I want in the 12th round.

Here’s what I know for sure: Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout are the only two who definitely won’t be on the board at my turn. So I need to come up with a ranking of four names. Let’s review the contenders.

Ryan Braun: A consensus top-three pick until his name was scribbled on a piece of paper along with his lawyer and the notation of 20-30K.

Robinson Cano: As steady as they come, durable and consistent.

Matt Kemp: Off-season shoulder surgery could lessen power while the scare of another hamstring injury may curtail his running.

Andrew McCutchen: Up and coming star, the proverbial five-category contributor still on the upswing.

Albert Pujols: After a slow start, it was the same old thing.

Prince Fielder: Perhaps a surprise, but after Miggy, Braun and Cano, there is no one more reliable.

That’s it, six names. Joey Votto is not in the conversation for me. He has the injury concern plus his power is suspect if he doesn’t start lofting more flies. I’m not going to take a pitcher in this spot, though I’m not going to try to be the smartest guy in the room and wait forever either. Buster Posey is off the table as well. I like him, and can justify this spot in terms of potential, but it has been my experience so far this drafting season that you can get a great return on your investment for catchers in general, so I’ll wait and jump on two I like later. If you can promise me Carlos Gonzalez was going to stay healthy all season, he’d be on the list. But then, if that were the case, he likely wouldn’t be available. Others are really high on Giancarlo Stanton. I agree he could lead the league with 50 homers. But my issue is that may come with 80 runs and 80 RBI.

Looking at the six names, I see two no-brainers: Braun and Cano. After that, I’m guessing it will depend on what mood I am in.

Short and to the point, Braun is the top player on my board and I don’t think he is going to get suspended. At least not based on what is presently known publicly.

As mentioned, Cano is Mr. Reliable. If you’re following my Chance Favors the Prepared Mind series, you know I’m not putting Cano on the list because of scarcity; I don’t believe in the concept. It's his stats, they're that good.

So I have four players for two spots. Let's do this. Since Pujols and Fielder are similar as are Kemp and McCutchen, I'll pair them off and decide my favorite of the two to help narrow things down.

The difference in potential stats between Pujols and Prince is very little, with Pujols getting the slight edge. However, I think Fielder is a little safer both in terms of health and reliability. Admittedly, Fielder doesn't run enough to warrant the sixth pick based on value in a vacuum, but other than Braun, Cabrera and Cano, I see no one more likely to be a top-15 pick, which is my ultimate objective. Pujols may have a slightly higher ceiling, but Prince has a higher floor, so if it comes down to the two of them, I’ll take Fielder.

Turning to the toolsy outfielders, I’m not worried about Kemp’s running. If he’s healthy, he’ll run, at least this year. Maybe not to the tune of 40 bags, but 20-25 is plausible, if not likely. But I am concerned about his shoulder. Early reports are all systems go, but with a draft this early, I’m a tad reticent to rely on Kemp before he takes a swing in anger. I’m not completely sold on McCutchen either, else he would be a no-brainer on this list. My concern is a batting average that can just as easily be .260 as it can .300. I realize the counter argument is at least I’ll get the counting stats, but I can get almost as much from Curtis Granderson a couple of rounds later. Still, McCutchen is healthy, so he gets the nod over Kemp, albeit reluctantly. Similar to the Pujols/Fielder reasoning, Kemp has the upside while McCutchen is safer.

The next step is deciding if either Pujols or Kemp would be my fourth choice or if it comes down to Fielder versus McCutchen for three and four. I think I'm going to stick with the risk element of the analysis and leave Pujols and Kemp on the sideline. Perhaps this is a knee-jerk reaction to making Troy Tulowitzki my first round choice last year in this league, leaving Cano on the table. Still, it feels like the right call.

So now it’s McCutchen against Fielder. There’s definitely a contrast in styles, which makes the decision that much more difficult. Part of me knows I need to introduce more risk into my game play, but the other part would rather play it safe and throw darts later. I realize I just put McCutchen in this spot because he's less of a risk than Kemp, but as mentioned, it's not like he's a completely safe play. I feel like Pinto in Animal House with an angel in one ear and the devil in the other. But instead of deciding whether to cop a feel, I need to make a draft pick.

I’m going to be honest: I’m torn. Well, I would have definitely copped a feel; I’m just not sure which direction to go in if I am faced with this conundrum.

What would you do? None of the above is a perfectly acceptable answer.

Last Updated on Monday, 11 February 2013 09:12
 

Comments  

 
# da_big_kid_94 2013-02-11 10:58
Slightly ironic that your major concerns about Kemp are health, yet he's still very much a factor in your thinking. However, CarGo you want a guarantee of health for?

Was it not you yourself who predicted that in Mc Cutchen's case, all that glittered wasn't gold two thirds into last season?

Said it last year ...say it this year ... I'd go CarGo.

Good luck, sport.

DBK
 
 
# Todd Zola 2013-02-11 11:31
The health issues with Kemp and CarGo are completely different. Kemp has been extremely durable, playing 155, 159, 162 and 161 games previous to last season. Since becoming a regular 3 years ago, CarGo has totaled 145, 127 and 135.

The concern with Kemp is whether his power is down after the shoulder surgery. As suggested, I'm not worried about the hammy.

The concern with CarGo is he has yet to play what amounts to a full season with standard days off. He can just as easily play 75 games as 150.

I'm not concerned about Kemp's health. I'm concerned about his performance level after surgery.
 
 
# da_big_kid_94 2013-02-11 12:53
I'd worry about any injury that recurred within a 60 day time frame. I think Kemp is a good pick in 2013 - but he is headstrong and tends to rush things - plus the new experience of being severely injured does not make him an automatic no brainer.

So they really aren't so different. Least with CarGo, one tempers expectations downwards and if he catches health, happy birthday. The fact that everyone was surprised when they opened Kemp up is an eyeopener. His record of past durability is nice ... but it just may be over as well. It's a hope he'll return to full health and productivity - but there are warning flags raised.
 
 
# The Red Wolf 2013-02-11 12:53
Todd, it's obvious you'll be facing a McCutchen decision at that spot. Get ready to make it.
 
 
# Todd Zola 2013-02-11 13:56
I think I know what direction I'm going in, but still can be swayed, so keep the cards and letter coming.
 
 
# OaktownSteve 2013-02-11 15:31
Couple things jump out at me with McCutchen. .375 BABIP, 4th highest in MLB among qualified and well above his career average. He also had a career low fly ball rate coupled with a career high (by quite a bit) HR/FB rate of 19.4%. So it depends on whether you think this was a breakout to a new floor or whether you think there's some regression. For me, some of the rates are so high above career rates, it's hard not to see regression. Could easily see him hitting sub 25 hrs and hitting in the .290s and all of a sudden he's not looking like a number 6 overall. Finally, as fast as he is, he's a lousy base stealer (all the Pirates are...worst success rate in MLB). Only 20 out of 32 last year and while I don't think there's any danger he'll get a red light, all those CSs limit his SB upside.

Personally I'd look at Pujols, but I'm not sure I'll be able to get back and comment on the reason why.
 
 
# Black Sox 2013-02-11 15:34
For me it's...

1.Braun 2.Cano 3.Kemp 4.Pujols 5.Fielder

Please don't draft McCutchen in my mind he's a late round pick. That batting average is coming down and with a variation of anywhere from .260-.320 it's not worth the risk at #6.
 
 
# Black Sox 2013-02-11 15:35
Meant late 1st round pick not late in the draft
 
 
# Todd Zola 2013-02-11 16:00
Here's clue which way I am leaning - below are the Platinum Profiles for Cutch and Fielder

McCutchen scares me. I'm not worried about his power, though another 30 bombs is a reach. There's slight concern over a poor stolen base success rate. Most bothersome is that McCutchen's a real threat to hit .260. For starters, his strikeout rate is trending in the wrong direction and he showed less patience last season. But more importantly, he sported a .375 BABIP, well above the .313 mark carried into last season. If the strikeouts continue and McCutchen's BABIP drops to previous levels, the average is in serious peril. On the other hand, his power/speed combo supports a higher than average BABIP, just not .375. Until Matt Kemp's health is better known, McCutchen somewhat reluctantly occupies the fifth spot on my board. But this is more a reflection of how risky the inventory is past Braun, Cabrera and Cano. Truth be told, if I couldn't start my team with one of that trio, I'd prefer a spot at the end of the first round and let someone else roll the dice with McCutchen.

With the elite tier of players being so fraught with injury risk, if you're looking for reliability, Fielder is your man. His upside is capped since he doesn't steal, but you can't ask for a more consistent performer not named Braun, Cabrera or Cano. It's interesting to note that Fielder's contract rate has decreased the past two seasons, without sacrificing power. This had raised Fielder's baseline average to about .300, which not only helps mitigate the lack of steals, but since it is amplified by so many at bats, the impact is heightened. This is especially helpful since hitting .300 means more now than a few years ago, as the aggregate average has fallen over the past few years.
 
 
# OaktownSteve 2013-02-11 16:09
157, 158, 159, 162, 161, 162, 162

Prince Fielder's games played since 2006. Says a lot.
 
 
# AllstonRockCity 2013-02-12 14:50
For what ever reason, I feel that Cano is going to be there at 6 so none of this will matter.

That being said, McCutchen vs Fielder is tough. For me it boils down to wanting a good foundation in AVG or SBs. I feel that with Fielder I "know" I'm getting good AVG and 0 SBs. With McCutchen I "know" I'm getting at least 20SBs. The difference is that McCutchen could hit .300 or more, Fielder will never steal more than a handful of bags, ever. Advantage: McCutchen

If reliability and consistency is what your after, why not at least consider Verlander? After all, is there anyone else more likely to dominate 4 CATs like him?
 
 
# Todd Zola 2013-02-12 15:09
There's too many pitchers I like later to take Verlander. Plus it's a trading league and I know there will be SP on the market.

I actually dispute Cutch is a lock to get 20 bags. His success rate is terrible. He's likely hitting 3rd and Starling Marte can take over the rabbit at the top role.

I think he will get 20, just saying it's not a lock.
 
 
# AllstonRockCity 2013-02-12 15:44
and that will be 20 more than Prince
 
 
# Penny 2013-02-14 16:05
This is neat stuff. Are you going to offer some analysis of your actual picks now that they've taken place? I was especially intrigued with picking pitchers early and late, and picking 5 1Bs throughout the draft.
 
 
# Todd Zola 2013-02-15 11:22
I'll do a post mortem at some point, was on a deadline with ESPN this week.

I'll probably write an Organized Chaos either Saturday or Sunday with the rundown
 

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