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Buster and the Scarcity Scare PDF Print E-mail
Bed Goes Up, Bed Goes Down
Written by Lawr Michaels   
Saturday, 02 February 2013 00:00

About ten days back my mate Todd and I found ourselves drafting 12 of 13 at the Fantasy Sports Trade Association (FSTA) draft, having planned on Prince Fielder falling to our coffers, with perhaps Jose Bautista or Adrian Beltre coming back to us after the wheel pick.

Oops.

Fielder was gone with a cluster of others—maybe like Joey Votto or Giancarlo Stanton—when the pick was ours, and Votto, Stanton, and Fielder all gone.

As Todd documented in his article of January 22, Ring Around the Posey, we took an unexpected path in grabbing Buster Posey as our #1 pick, and followed back with Justin Upton as KFFL’s Tim Heaney grabbed Jose Bautista and Dustin Pedroia with his first pair of picks.

If you look at the comments regarding Todd's piece on the draft you will note that not everyone was enamored of the pick, although the bulk of criticism seemed rooted more around the fact that Posey is a catcher and well, catchers get hurt. And that is what made him a "dangerous" selection.

Certainly I was down with the pick because I like Buster, and get to see him a lot, but, beneath the issue of injury—which is a real concern—the Giants backstop can indeed rake.

So, if you are drafting simply to stats and performance, Buster was no more a longshot than our second pick, coming off a down year and now on a new team in an outfield with his brother.

But, one of the things I have thought about through the cluster of mock drafts I have already completed this year is around Buster as catcher and that nagging scarcity issue.

For sure, I had no thought of scarcity in mind when I suggested Posey, and though I do like to draft by filling out the tougher positions first, I have also learned that in most leagues there will always be players later in the draft or auction.  (I can also note that in all the Mock Drafts I have done this year, Buster was a first round pick.)

For example, I was really targeting Ryan Zimmerman as our third pick, figuring he would slip just enough below Beltre and Evan Longoria, but as with Fielder, I was wrong.

That made it is easy for Todd to suggest Edwin Encarnacion and his projected 35 dingers, agreeing that if would get Kyle Seager in or about the 12th round, that was a fine alternative (which is exactly where we got him).

Same with shortstop, for though Todd is big on Jose Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki makes me as nervous as Derek Jeter. But, Reyes, like Fielder and Zimmerman, went before the turn came back to us.

So, Todd and I similarly agreed that either Erick Aybar or Jhonny Peralta would be out there later in the draft, so we wound up with Aybar in the tenth, and Zack Cozart as our 20th selection, covering short and the middle. In the mean time we filled things out with Brandon Phillips and a troika of pitchers.

Even with closer, we took Greg Holland in the tenth round, Steve Cishek in round 18, followed by Vinnie Pestano as pick 23, and then hedged our closer bets with Frank Francisco and Bobby Parnell in the 25th and 26th rounds respectively.

Now, I will not go as far as to say we took the best player available in each round, for we were both conscious of making sure we walked away with a balanced roster of everyday players. But, as with Buster, we did not take any of these guys so much to take of a scarcity as opposed to filling out our roster, knowing that for each outfielder or arm we took early, that meant a bit of a drop as the leaner spots.

However, we also knew that it is not that much of a drop from Derek Jeter to Erick Aybar anyway. Meaning scarcity always factors into what you are doing a little bit. It is just nothing more to hang one's hat on than anything else.

In the process it destroyed the real notion of scarcity for me forever.

For now, anyway.

BTW, you can check out the entire draft here.

 

More Articles by Lawr Michaels

Comments  

 
# Captain Hook 2013-02-02 11:56
I think many players like Posey get tagged with the "injury risk" handle prematurely and then never shake it ....that said if you draft Posey - and I will - you make sure you spend a reserve pick on Hector Sanchez who can really mash and would be much better than what would be available in the FA pile .... and you won't have to waste precious FAAB on your sub
 
 
# lawr 2013-02-02 13:35
love hector perry. always have.
 
 
# Todd Zola 2013-02-02 14:20
I think the part about the injury risk thing that made me chuckle is looking at the surrounding picks, there were names like CarGo, Votto, Tulo, Longo, Hamilton, Bautista, Kinsler, Hanley.

Plus, one reason I chose the front page photo, other than it includes two of the principles of the piece, is it shows how Posey no longer blocks the plate, but is off to the side and sweeps a tag.
 
 
# Black Sox 2013-02-03 15:46
But isn't scarcity the only reason Buster can be considered a 1st Rd pick? I mean if you take position out of it he's a .300 24 74/97 hitter. Compare that to someone like Y.Molina at .315 18 58/72 going 4 rounds later. Worse yet compare it to any of the hitters selected around him like Beltre, Bautista Upton and Harper. Even Pedrioa at least gives you double digit steals with similar numbers to Posey.
 
 
# Todd Zola 2013-02-03 18:51
I don't like the term scarcity but yes, Posey in the first is a value over replacement choice.

The point was after that, we took and OF and a 1B instead of reaching for 2B/SS/3B and still found what we liked later.
 
 
# Polka 2013-02-04 20:25
I listened to that entire draft twice and like what you guys did...both times
Cheering for you guys as a paying member help reinforce why I pay for your services too! I also enjoy hearing you guys on XM as well, mostly on RotoWire's show, which are my other favorites....Posey really only got hurt when he was blasted correct? I know he was hurt, but when I think Injury prone Tulo and Hamilton really come to mind, not a guy who got crushed. Ellsbury's been hurt a few times, but not nagging Hammy injuries like Longo, freak injuries like Posey's blocking home.
 
 
# lawr 2013-02-05 11:01
yep, Buster only missed time when Scott Cousins crushed him on a short fly to right by Bonifacio.

i was there, working the game in the booth. once the ball was hit, we knew there would be a major collision at the plate, but i don't think anyone thought it would end like it did.

it was a clean hit, btw, like it or not.
 
 
# Todd Zola 2013-02-05 23:02
The Cishek pick is starting to look iffy (rumors of Valverde to Miami) but I am pretty sure Parnell will be the guy for the Mets and there is a good chance Pestano pays dividends as well.

The other pick I am really liking was Lawr pegging Rosenthal in the last round. The news about Carpenter really opens up the door for Rosenthal to kick in.

Last season, RA Dickey was the last pick of the FSTA draft. I'm not saying Rosenthal will win the Cy, but I think he may be a surprise to our staff.
 

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