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Getting a Head Start on 2013 PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Greg Morgan   
Tuesday, 18 December 2012 09:53

The necessary evil that is H2H in Fantasy Football has led to an inglorious finale for my 2012 post season, but even when I’m sweating it out, close to the big carrot, my attention shifts this time of year to preparation for the forthcoming season.  The data and impressions from the current year will never be fresher than they are now, making it the perfect time to start doing the work that will lead to 2013 draft cheatsheets and targets.

Many things will drive the fantasy market next September, the cumulative stats compiled over the 16 game season is one of them, however there is nothing magical about using that particular cross section of games over  another, and if one focuses solely on one in particular, some trends and indicators will be masked.  I like to take as many cross sections as possible, look at any outliers and then research any trends they may lie behind them.  After all, our job as players is to identify errors in the market.  That becomes an impossible task without data.  The starting point will be this year’s performance based on cumulative stats.  Next I’ll pour through as many cross sections of data as possible.  I’ll do this at each and every position.  I’ll spot the outliers, research, and determine whether enough information supports adjusting future expectations.

Here’s an example looking at the season versus the last ten weeks for QB and RB.

TOP 24 QB’s by average points per game
Tom Brady – 25.4
Drew Brees – 25.0
Robert Griffin III – 25.0
Cam Newton – 24.4
Aaron Rodgers – 23.8
Matt Ryan – 22.9
Peyton Manning – 22.8
Andrew Luck – 22.4
Matthew Stafford – 21.8
Ben Roethlisberger – 21.7
Tony Romo – 21.4
Andy Dalton – 20.8
Carson Palmer – 20.5
Michael Vick – 20.0
Josh Freeman - 19.7
Russell Wilson – 19.1
Joe Flacco – 18.7
Matt Schaub – 18.4
Sam Bradford – 17.9
Eli Manning – 17.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick – 17.4
Kevin Kolb – 17.3
Philip Rivers – 17.3
Jake Locker – 16.9
Top 24 QB’s average points per game (last 10 weeks – 4 starts minimum)
Tom Brady - 26.5
Cam Newton - 26.0
Robert Griffin III - 25.3
Aaron Rodgers - 24.4
Drew Brees - 23.1
Tony Romo - 22.8
Russell Wilson - 22.7
Matthew Stafford - 22.5
Peyton Manning - 22.2
Colin Kaepernick 21.8(6 starts)
Josh Freeman - 21.8
Andrew Luck - 21.4
Carson Palmer - 21.2
Ben Roethlisberger - 20.7
Matt Ryan - 20.6
Andy Dalton - 20.3
Sam Bradford - 19.7
Jake Locker - 18.8(4 starts)
Michael Vick - 18.8
Matt Schaub - 18.8
Joe Flacco - 17.4
Philip Rivers - 16.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick – 16.0
Nick Foles – 15.8(5 starts)

Pete Carroll had the training wheels on Russell Wilson early in the season but everyone knows they’re off now.  Wilson has produced the 7th most fantasy points among QB’s the last 6 weeks and since week 8 is ranked third with 24.2 ppg.  Kaepernick has also emerged as a viable QB1.  This isn’t rocket science and the market may adjust accordingly next fall, but you might be surprised how many times the market ignores these trends or doesn’t adjust enough.

Top 24 RB’s average points per game
Adrian Peterson – 22.0
Arian Foster – 20.1
Doug Martin - 19.2
Knowshon Moreno – 18.7(4 starts)
Ray Rice – 18.2
Trent Richardson – 17.5
LeSean McCoy – 16.9
Marshawn Lynch – 16.7
DeMarco Murray – 15.8
C.J. Spiller – 15.7
Darren Sproles – 15.6
Frank Gore – 15.1
Jamaal Charles – 14.8
Willis McGahee – 14.7
Matt Forte – 14.4
Alfred Morris – 14.2
Darren McFadden -  14..1
Chris Johnson - 14.0
Mikel Leshoure – 13.6
Ahmad Bradshaw – 13.1
Stevan Ridley – 13.0
Maurice Jones-Drew – 12.7
BenJarvus Green-Ellis – 12.6
Fred Jackson – 12.3
Reggie Bush – 12.3
Top 24 RB’s average points per game(last 10 weeks – 4 starts minimum)
Adrian Peterson - 25.9
Doug Martin – 22.5
Arian Foster – 19.6
Bryce Brown – 19.5
Knowshon Moreno – 18.7
Chris Johnson – 17.5
Marshawn Lynch – 17.4
LeSean McCoy – 17.2
Ray Rice – 17.0
Trent Richardson – 16.4
Darren Sproles – 16.2
C.J. Spiller – 15.3
Fred Jackson – 15.2
Frank Gore – 15.0
Matt Forte – 14.8
Steven Jackson – 14.4
Shonn Greene – 14.3
Darren McFadden – 14.2
Alfred Morris – 13.6
BenJarvus Green Ellis – 13.5
Willis McGahee – 13.3
Mikel Leshoure – 12.9
Jamaal Charles – 12.1
Ahmad Bradshaw – 11.9

The most noteworthy revelation is the conspicuous absence of the perennial preseason demigod Ryan Mathews.  I anticipate encountering the usual hype next summer.  Why expect anything else?  Just don’t forget he failed sniff anything more than middling RB3 value at any point during the season.  It will be interesting to see where in the first round the market places Doug Martin.  Meanwhile a heavy workload has spawned 1st round production from Knowshon Moreno over the last 4 weeks, but there remains much uncertainty surrounding his usage down the road. Bryce Brown was a target of mine in draft champions leagues based on how he looked in the preseason and his blue chip status many moons ago.  He’s the real deal but ball security issues, inexperience, and the presence of LeSean McCoy cloud any early prognostication.  At a minimum Brown’s presence is a serious threat to Slim Shady’s fantasy stock.

 

More Articles by Greg Morgan

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