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Thursday 19th Oct 2017

My only team in the FFWC is currently tied for 1st place.  The odds of me keeping that status after losing Michael Vick and Rob Gronkowski are about as good as seeing Elvis Presley returning to earth commandeering a flying saucer that crashes directly into the Loch Ness monster.  Even before the recent injuries, it was hardly the best team in the league.  That honor belongs to, of course, the namesake of Chad Schroeder, "Cocktails and Dreams."  How does he do it?  The master of roster construction is currently ranked second in total points but has in my estimation the strongest lineup hands down.  Back in September with the 4th overall pick Chad left the draft table with this lineup:

1.4 Darren McFadden
2.9 Doug Martin
3.4 Roddy White
4.9 Percy Harvin
5.4 Marques Colston
6.9 Miles Austin
7.4 Vernon Davis
8.9 Eli Manning
9.4 C.J. Spiller
10.9 Philip Rivers
11.4 David Wilson
12.9 Austin Collie
13.4 Evan Royster
14.9 Rod Streater
15.4 Devery Henderson
16.9 Baltimore Ravens
17.4 Lance Kendricks
18.9 Braylon Edwards
19.4 Dan Bailey
20.9 Mike Goodson

There are a number of interesting things here.  Almost every pick from rounds 1-9 he hit out of the park with the possible exception of Darren McFadden, but even he performed like an average RB2 when healthy.  Equally interesting is that picks 11-20 have all been non-assets.  In the end, his team has led the way by dominating RB 1-2, WR 1-3, and flex (WR4). Spiller and Martin give him two RB1’s and Chad has three receivers in the top 10, plus Austin in the top 20. 

Chad has shown that there’s plenty of success to be had by ignoring QB’s until the later rounds.  In fact, this is a consistent trend in his drafts.  It seems like year after year, as much as I would prefer sheep in my high stakes leagues, I’m plagued with sharks, and none more common than Chad.  The denominator thread I’ve identified is that he hammers RB’s and WR’s in the first seven rounds, period.  There are occasional exceptions, but those are few.  If an extreme value slips, Chad might grab one tight end or--less likely--one quarterback (but never both) during the first 7 rounds, but it’s always an exception to the rule. 

 This makes a lot of sense.  Scoring for TE’s and QB’s are very volatile from year to year.  The relative ‘stability’ of some of the elite QB’s we saw last year seems to be more fluke than new trend.  The biggest support for this strategy is the opportunity cost of eschewing proven RB’s and WR’s.   The top 20 wide-outs this year were ALL drafted in the first 6 rounds. Of the top 20 tailbacks, only two(C.J. Spiller and Alfred Morris) were selected after the first 7 rounds.  Now listen to this, 5 of the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks were drafted in the 8th round or later:  (Peyton Manning – 8th, Robert Griffin 10th, Andrew Luck 12th, Carson Palmer 12th, and Andy Dalton 12th).  In one NFFC league I drafted Cam Newton, to my own dismay as I also drafted Carson Palmer as my ‘backup’ in the 20th round.  I had it backwards as Newton has underperformed the rejuvenated Raider and playing Cam over Carson has cost me roughly 2 points on average per week!

Chad is always ahead of the waiver wire curve, often snatching up assets a week before they become a hot commodity.  His exploits with this team include Cecil Shorts, Josh Gordon, Chris Givens, and Isaac Redman.

Looking ahead, we’ll examine other frontrunners and their strategies.


0 #2 Lawr Michaels 2012-11-21 16:15
nice piece greg. my most (well, only) successful team this year had me freezing foster, and drafting last (12th) in a league w two flex spots.

we can play two QBs but can only have two of them on our rosters as well.

by the time my pick came all the prime QBs were gone, so i took lynch, hernandez (ouch) welker, and austin, and wound up with russell wilson and palmer as my QBs.

team is 9-2.
0 #1 Patrick Wisniewski 2012-11-20 23:14
I would love to print this off and email it to all my league mates, but that would just be taking bread off my table! I often draft much like Chad in all my local leagues and did a few years back in footballguys.com high stakes league and won $1400+ there. While dopes like my brother and his drunk drafting freinds keep donating to my vacation fund and keep drafting QB's in our league with their top picks, while the top overall 20 players in scoring at seasons end at least 15 of them are qb's!!!!
I waited until round 9 and grabbed Rivers and then in 10 snagged Griffin the 3rd!!!!
Chad I'm with you brother, and Greg too bad about those injuries, but you may salvage a beast on waivers still and hang on brother!!!
Good Luck!!!!

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