As we head into the Memorial Day Weekend we are just a few days from the end of the first third of the 2012 baseball season.
In many formats that means time for a serious look at your place in the standings and your roster. Oakland General Manager Billy Beane used to view April and May – the first third of the year as the time to see what he actually had on the field and based on that, make his plans for the rest of the season. If there is a chance for your team to contend, then you have to make a plan that will get you into contention.
Beane suggested that June and July – the second third of the season was the time to put the plan into place – call up players from the minors that might fill a need; trade from excess either on the team or in the system to fill a critical need; even cut or send down players who weren’t productive.
After those roster moves the team would be set up to make a stretch run in the final third of the season.
YOUR fantasy baseball team is not much different. Sure there are slightly different approaches in redraft or keeper leagues; in trading leagues or non-trading leagues. But the roster analysis has to start now. What are the categorical deficiencies; and How can you correct them? Be truthful in your analysis but don’t just look at the numbers for the first third of the year – you may be trending up in some categories and down in others so your splits by week/month are very important to look at.
The easiest thing is to deal from a clear surplus of stolen bases or saves. But even in the power categories remember there is a maximum number of points in the category – you don’t get more if you win the column by ten…or twenty….or fifty. It is better to get 11 points in HR and RBI in a twelve team league if giving up those two points will gain you more in pitching.
The earlier you can get your plan together and start re-structuring your lineup the more effect new players will have on your stats – three or four months of better production is obviously better than just two months. But you may also have more trading partners to choose from by making deals earlier.
What you will have to pay for your reinforcements depends on your league structure. My focus here would be primarily on keeper leagues because redraft leagues should be very restrictive if they even allow any trades – all you can do there is rearrange the deck chairs.
While you would like to acquire the hot bats don’t forget that historically reliable players who are off to slow starts will cost you a lot less, so while you may look to deal for an Adam Jones to fill a weak outfield slot it will cost you. But you may well get a Kevin Youkilis thrown into the deal or be able to acquire him cheaply from another team. Youk has just come off the DL and will be playing some first base as well as third base for Boston unless the Red Sox find a team who wants him.
Now is also the time you may be able to acquire a younger player who has talent but it is struggling enough to lower the price substantially. Eric Hosmer would be a great trade target if yours is a team that needs to roll the dice a little. You would never have pried him away from an owner in March or April but trading for him before he starts hitting again is a better proposition.{jcomments on}