Fallacy is defined by the dictionary as a misleading notion based on inaccurate facts or invalid reasoning. In a nutshell, that’s drafting in November.
As by now you know, several of us from Mastersball attended First Pitch AZ held in Phoenix, Arizona last week. The organizers set up a three league Draft & Hold tournament with 15 teams in each league. The plan was to draft 50 players, although due to time limitations we stopped at 22 and will continue online through the month, no trades, no free agents, these 50 are all we get. Other than that, the rules are standard Roto 5x5, 23 active players, lineups can be changed weekly.
I participated because I like drafting. It is fun even if after a draft I have a headache, am in a need of a shower and my jaw hurts for having clenched my teeth for three hours. Real drafts as opposed to the mock ones are fun, fun, fun.
Some called drafting this soon a folly and took the tournament with a pinch of skepticism. Some others took it as a challenge. Among the key factors to consider are the 25 rosters, final player positions and who will be called up from the minors, information that is unavailable or inaccurate in November. The old axiom which says that without at-bats you cannot accumulate points and without points you cannot win cannot be truer. Besides, anything can happen between now and next April, including your catcher getting kidnapped, see Wilson Ramos.
I ended up relying too much on 2010 data meant for the 2011 season. Minutes before the draft I printed out last year's player rankings with Billy Butler marked as a 1B. In the heat of the draft I forgot that in ’12 he qualifies only at DH. Customarily I do not like to draft players who can only be placed in the Utility spot. I expect from Butler close to but not over 20 HRs and a BA slightly below .300. He looked like a bargain in the 8th round. By then even Michael Morse was gone. Experts bet that next year Morse will play in the outfield where his stats are not as good as those when he plays 1B. Having Butler forced me to pick up Todd Helton, the next best available 1B, in the 23rd round. From Helton I expect a dozen HRs and a BA around .300.
So, my team is weak at the 1B position and may do well in the BA category. Other than that, its success depends on the injury of one player and the love life of another. Love life? You serious? Yes sir. About that I will tell tomorrow.