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Saturday 27th May 2017

Today we are going to take a look at the All-Value team based on first half performance.  What I did was take the National Fantasy Baseball Championship ADP and assign dollar values per draft spot based on history.  I opted to use the NFBC ADP as opposed to our pre-season projections as a “wisdom of the crowd” exercise.  You will not find a sharper group of drafters anywhere and the sample is sufficient to weed out those using odd strategies that could skew an ADP.  I kept the analysis simple, just calculating the amount the players earned over what was expected based on their draft spot.  All reserves were assigned an expected value of $0.

While it is interesting, not to mention fun to draw conclusions from the results to aid in future drafts, it must be noted that we are only halfway through the season, the trends may change, not to mention there is no guarantee next year’s player pool acts in the same manner as 2011.  That said, there are some trends I am going to keep my eye on with the hope it gives me an edge come next spring.

Here is your FIRST TEAM ALL-PROFIT FIRST HALF SQUAD:

Player

POS

ADP

Actual

Expected

Profit

Asdrubal Cabrera

SS

251.45

$30

$5

$25

Curtis Granderson

OF

104.81

$40

$15

$25

Lance Berkman

1B

250.74

$29

$5

$24

Matt Kemp

OF

19.8

$49

$28

$21

James Shields

SP

200.34

$28

$8

$20

David Ortiz

UT

177.54

$27

$9

$18

Michael Morse

OF

275.52

$21

$4

$17

Alex Gordon

OF

277.77

$21

$4

$17

Jhonny Peralta

MI

247.18

$22

$5

$17

Carlos Beltran

OF

225.63

$22

$7

$16

Jose Bautista

3B

31.52

$39

$24

$15

Paul Konerko

CI

72.07

$33

$19

$15

Michael Pineda

SP

264.31

$19

$4

$15

Justin Verlander

SP

47.37

$36

$22

$15

Danny Espinosa

2B

236.37

$20

$6

$14

Jair Jurrjens

SP

279.9

$17

$4

$13

Jered Weaver

SP

60.28

$31

$20

$11

Miguel Olivo

C

288.93

$14

$3

$11

Anibal Sanchez

SP

250.21

$16

$5

$11

Josh Beckett

SP

166.78

$20

$10

$10

Kyle Farnsworth

CL

314.09

$11

$2

$9

Joel Hanrahan

CL

180.45

$17

$9

$8

Russell Martin

C

253.25

$13

$5

$8

 

And your SECOND TEAM ALL-PROFIT FIRST HALF SQUAD:

Player

POS

ADP

Actual

Expected

Profit

Michael Bourn

OF

132.98

$28

$13

$15

Johnny Damon

OF

310.98

$17

$2

$15

Ryan Ludwick

OF

315.46

$15

$1

$14

Jose Reyes

SS

25.79

$40

$27

$14

Seth Smith

OF

299.08

$16

$2

$14

Erick Aybar

MI

277.18

$17

$4

$13

Jacoby Ellsbury

OF

42.2

$34

$22

$12

Adam Lind

CI

152.7

$23

$11

$12

Gaby Sanchez

1B

180.51

$21

$9

$12

Placido Polanco

3B

316.28

$12

$1

$11

Yunel Escobar

UT

253.98

$16

$5

$11

Ty Wigginton

2B

279.5

$13

$4

$9

Ian Kennedy

SP

198.92

$17

$8

$9

Ricky Romero

SP

188.17

$16

$8

$8

Scott Baker

SP

259.91

$12

$4

$8

Johnny Cueto

SP

275.02

$12

$4

$8

Ryan Madson

CL

310.99

$10

$2

$8

Craig Kimbrel

CL

163.02

$18

$10

$8

Paul Maholm

SP

578.76

$7

$0

$7

Cole Hamels

SP

57.75

$27

$20

$7

Tim Stauffer

SP

274.6

$10

$4

$6

J.P. Arencibia

C

251.37

$11

$5

$6

Jason Varitek

C

484.55

$5

$0

$5

 

With the caveat that the following are presently observations and do not yet have any tangible application to game theory, here are some quick thoughts:

1.  I am pleased by the fact that there are not as many pitchers at the upper end of each profit list.  One of the dictums most preach is value pitching always emerges.  At least through the first half of the season, my preseason suggestion that as a populace, we are getting better at valuing pitching may have legs.  Though, we do need to keep in mind the specific populace used here is the NFBC drafter, but, so far, so good.  It will be interesting to determine at season’s end if this pattern still holds.

2.  It is curious that there are no catchers that are significantly outperforming their expectations.  I’m not sure yet how to apply this, but it is worth noting.

3.  Something not shown form the above data is the vast majority of the next group of high profit players are outfielders.  This lends credence to notion of leaving a couple of outfield spots available to be considered fungible, in search of one or two of these value players.

We will broach this again at season’s end.  Good luck to everyone, here is hoping you have a bunch of top second half profit earners on your squad(s)!  Later this week, we will take a look at those on the opposite end of the spectrum, those earning the most negative value the first three months.

Comments   

0 #2 Todd Zola 2011-07-05 15:11
Perry -- keeping it simple, filling out a "standard" 14 hitter, 9 pitcher roster, though this is no longer standard to the overall population playing, it is still standard to us :D

I could have done it via percentage of expected value or something like that, but just decided to use raw profit.

I ranked them by profit then went down the line, filling in open positions. I opted for 7 starters and 2 closers for the pitching staff.
Quote
0 #1 Perry Van Hook 2011-07-05 15:05
Todd - what puts a player on first team or second team? (suspecting top at each position by profit go to first team)

Also on the C note - Miguel Olivo is doing awfully well (as long as the current injury doesn't keep him out for a long while and/or diminish his timing for too long)
Quote

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