I thought I would do something a little different for this week’s NFBC Zone. Over the course of the season, I get some e-mails and private messages and I do not always get a chance to answer them all. As it happens, the past few weeks have been a wee bit hectic for me and I have been unable to address even more than usual, so I thought I would…well…interview myself using the unanswered e-mails and PMs.
MASTERSBALL: Hi Todd and welcome to the NFBC Zone. We would like to thank you for taking time out of your busy day to help us out.
Me: My pleasure, I am always willing to help myself out.
MASTERSBALL: Great! Here is the first question: what makes you an expert? What have you ever won?
Me: Are we really going down this road again? It is getting a bit stale.
MASTERSBALL: Oh sorry, my bad. That was a question from 2008. Dude, you really should clear out your PMs.
Me: Ah, that explains it. And stop calling me dude.
MASTERSBALL: Let’s try this one. Are you planning on returning to Las Vegas? We missed you the past couple of years.
Me: YES! Personal circumstances have forced a shift in priorities, but assuming a few things flesh out, I am very much looking forward to returning to Sin City. I cannot express how much I have missed the Friday AL and NL auctions.
MASTERSBALL: What do you think of Fantasy Camp? Are you offended by your “numerish” character?
Me: I love it and HELL NO!!! For those that do not follow the NFBC forums, Fantasy Camp is a running feature written by Doughboys, starring forum regulars in what is best described as caricatures of themselves. The majority of the posts are parodies of current discussions. My character talks in numbers, termed numerish and is most often translated into English by another forum regular, bjoak. There is nothing insulting about it. Numerish is really nothing more than playing the percentages, a topic that is currently being discussed on the NFBC forums. My philosophy is I want to base my decisions on the odds I feel have the greatest chance of happening. That is, I want to minimize what others may deem a gut call. The metaphor I use is the rolling of a pair of dice, though I admit the analogy is far from perfect. The proper prediction is for a roll of seven. This only occurs 16.7% of the time, but of all the combinations, it is the most likely. If you predict anything other than seven, you are essentially making a gut call. For me, numerish is nothing more than the analysis I use to determine what I consider to be the most likely outcome. Putting aside the fact that there is a very good chance that not all my methods are proper, assuming for the sake of argument that they are, if I guess seven every time, I maximize my chance for success. Again, the analogy is not perfect; I am not saying there is a 17% chance of getting a decision correct. I am only suggesting that whatever the percentages may be, I prefer to choose the path I determine has the best chance of happening, minimizing if not eliminating what amount to coin flip decisions. That is the essence of numerish.
MASTERSBALL: What do you think of the state of the high stakes industry and what is happening with other football contests?
Me: To be honest, I prefer to leave the discussion of what is happening to some football contests to those plugged into the situations. It really is not my place. Obviously, I hope everything gets settled as this is no doubt a black eye on the industry, and I trust it will, or perhaps better stated, I am confident that the NFBC and NFFC will adhere to a solid and trustworthy business model so there will always be a safe and reliable platform for high stakes players. That said, there is an area related to the high stakes industry that really worries me and that is the current proliferation of daily contests. I am by no means knocking those that are operating daily games and certainly not chiding anyone playing them. My concern is fantasy sports are already treading on thin ice when it comes to the non-gambling classification. Especially in light of what has happened with the on-line poker industry, there will come a time that daily games will come under increased scrutiny and maybe perhaps is deemed a game of chance. This could bleed over to the games we presently play. I am part curious, part dubious of what is around the corner.
MASTERSBALL: What do you think of Doughboys idea for an “expert” NFBC league?
Me: For those unaware, this idea was recently proposed by the aforementioned Doughboys and can be found HERE. I have a couple of different directions I can go with this. Bottom line is if it were to come to fruition, I am in. But truth be told, I am not really sure if it will accomplish what is intended for a couple of reasons. If the reason is to increase the credibility in the eyes of NFBC players, that is only going to happen if the writers play against other NFBC players, not other writers. Perhaps more importantly, to those that play in LABR and Tout Wars, I do not see an NFBC writer’s league being considered more credible. LABR and Tout Wars have been around for several years. I just don’t see how winning a writer’s NFBC league would be more prestigious to those in the industry. And, like suggested, no matter who wins it, the NFBC buzz is going to be, “so what, let’s see how they do against real NFBC competition.”
That said, if the idea is packaged as a promotional tool for the NFBC, I see nothing wrong with that and think it is a neat idea. My KDS will be 1-15.