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Wednesday 29th Mar 2017

I apologize for the short effort today, I have been focusing on our first in-season projection update for the Platinum subscribers, which this season includes some additional playing time notes.

April showers have brought May flowers, check local listings.  This week, I am going to take a look at April numbers in Major League Baseball to see if we can glean anything to help us manage our squads in a fantasy sense.  Today, we will present some data then on Thursday, we will look at how we may be able to use it to our advantage.

What we will do is compare the standard rotisserie stats from this past April to April of 2010 as well as all of 2010.  Some numbers will be normalized per inning such as hits, homers, strikeouts and walks.  Others will be normalized per game, namely runs and stolen bases.

If you sense that offense is still down, you are spot on.   Here is a table showing the relevant stats:

 

H/9

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

R/GM

SB/GM

ERA

WHIP

April/March 2011

8.52

7.09

3.28

0.91

8.58

1.37

3.90

1.31

April/March 2010

8.75

7.13

3.66

0.95

9.09

1.34

4.20

1.38

2010

8.84

7.13

3.28

0.96

8.77

1.22

4.08

1.35

Compared to both last April and last season, scoring is down.  Batters are getting fewer hits, especially homers.  Stolen bases, however, appear to be up just a bit, though steals are usually more prevalent early in the season.

Looking at pitching, after rising for several seasons, at least for one month, the league strikeout rate has stabilized.  It is a bit interesting to note that last season, the league walk rate was high in April, but this season it is down.  This could be a result of hurlers coming after hitters since power is down, or it could just be a blip, time will tell.  But it is apparent that the reduced number of free passes along with fewer homers has been the primary cause of the reduced ERA.

So power is down and speed is up.  While this is not surprising, the astute fantasy player will see if they can use this to their advantage as the season progresses.  On Thursday, we will put this concept under the microscope.

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