This is crazy time for mock drafts and player projections and cranking articles in anticipation of 2010. At least if you are in the fantasy industry. Of course part of this craziness is rooted in deadlines and preparation for 2010.
But, as much as anything, well, just like you, we all play in multiple leagues and we all are trying to figure out who will play what where, and who on our rosters have value and who we should dump high and try to acquire low.
So, as much as we write and share our assessments, we are similarly trying to figure how to drop Adam Dunn for Ubaldo Jimenez and the rights to Brett Anderson in a dynasty league.
Now, that might sound lopsided, but I think Dunn is vastly underated, especially in formats that value OBP (he has a career .383 mark). Not to mention 316 homers, at the age of 30, with five more years of home run production with the mean of his nine year career thus far (35.11 per season), Dunn will have 491 career taters that is essentially HOF territory. That is, unless Dunn equates to 500 as Dave Kingman did to 400 and the 500 dinger barometer is no longer a benchmark.
But, compare to Jimenez, or Anderson, both of whom pitched very well last year, and both of whom have seemingly bright futures. But, neither is even close to establishing themselves as potential hall members, and of course, that is because the body of work for each pitcher is still so small.
However, even with ten years of pitching added to the resumes of each hurler--Anderson and Jimenez--neither would be worthy of mention in a discussion with Jim Palmer, Nolan Ryan, and even Don Sutton.
In fact, if each won 20 games each year for the next ten years, neither would be in HOF territory either, though because both hurlers are young then they could project in those ten years the way Dunn projects now.
Back to the question, though, of how we determine value when trying to make a trade in a league, where we don't need Dunn, and where Jimenez or Anderson would be great gambles, just as Dunn would be as close as a sure thing not named Pujols?
The answer is, I wish I knew. Like you, we are all just doing the best we can. And me? I am probably going to have to live with 38 homers again, and a hole in my pitching.